Regional Trends in Armed Violence: Q1 2025 Monitor Released

While firearm incidents remain a concern in South East Europe, law enforcement efforts have intensified to address them – as revealed in SEESAC’s latest Regional Armed Violence Monitor. The first quarter of 2025 documented the highest number of weapon seizures ever reported in a single quarter, reflecting a strengthened institutional response. At the same time, the Monitor highlights that more than 900 firearm incidents were reported between January and March, pointing to shifting trends in armed violence and its effects on citizens.

Key insights include:

  • A total of 932 firearm incidents were reported across the region in the first quarter of 2025, a slight increase compared to the previous quarter and a 9% rise compared to the same period in 2024.
  • With 524 cases, weapon seizures accounted for 56% of all firearm incidents.
  • Firearm incidents in the criminal context continued an upward trend, reflecting a 25% increase. The rise was mainly driven by an increase in armed robberies, firearm thefts, and incidents linked to organized crime.
  • An increase was seen in incidents related to domestic violence and undetermined shootings, while a decline was observed in public disputes involving firearms.
  • The number of victims of firearm violence increased by 11%:

                       - 36 people were killed, 13 of whom in a mass shooting.

                       - 11 people died by suicide

                      -  82 were injured

                       - 124 were threatened with firearms.

  • Incidents involving handguns remained the most frequently reported, followed by cases with explosive devices and rifles/shotguns.
  • Incidents with automatic and military-grade weapons rose by 60%, marking a reversal of the downward trend seen in 2024.
  • Illegal possession of weapons was recorded in nearly three-quarters of all reported incidents.

This quarter's findings, covering six Western Balkans jurisdictions and Moldova, offer critical insights for policymakers and relevant authorities, supporting the formulation of initiatives to reduce armed violence and enhance regional safety.

About the Armed Violence Monitoring Platform (AVMP)

The Armed Violence Monitoring Platform (AVMP) has been tracking firearm-related incidents in South East Europe since 2014. It collects detailed data from media and public institution reports covering the Western Balkans and Moldova.

The collected data ranges from the type of incident, firearms used, victim/perpetrator demographics, and outcome of the incident, among others, providing essential insights for arms control efforts and policymaking. By making this data accessible, the platform supports targeted interventions to reduce the impact of armed violence on civilians.

The AVMP is currently supported with funding from the EU Council Decision (CFSP) 2024/3006 to support SEESAC disarmament and arms control activities in South-East Europe, reducing the threat of illicit small arms and light weapons and their ammunition.

Back