Regional Quarterly Armed Violence Monitor January-March 2025.pdf
South East Europe ARMED VIOLENCE MONITOR Quarterly Regional Report January - March 2025 Background The spread and misuse of firearms remain a persistent threat to public safety, human rights, and sustainable development worldwide. Recognizing this challenge, UNDP SEESAC established the Armed Violence Monitoring Platform (AVMP) to systematically collect and analyse data on firearm-related incidents across South East Europe (SEE). Monitoring and analysing firearm-related incidents are therefore essential to understanding the scale, scope, and dynamics of armed violence. Comprehensive and timely data is crucial to inform evidence-based policymaking, strengthen prevention and response strategies, and support efforts to reduce the illicit possession and misuse of small arms and light weapons (SALW). To support these goals, this Quarterly Regional Report 1 presents key trends, incident patterns, and emerging threats observed between January and March 2025. Building on monthly reports, it aims to enhance understanding of firearm- related violence in SEE. The AVMP provides real-time insight into the scope and impact of firearm use, covering Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, the Republic of Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Kosovo.* Methodology The AVMP provides real-time insight2 into the scope and impact of firearm incidents, covering Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, the Republic of Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Kosovo. The AVMP data is collected daily from a combination of official sources, including websites of law enforcement institutions and ministries of interior, online and print media, with Kosovo’s data primarily sourced from daily police reports. Data on firearm incidents is categorised according to standardised definitions to ensure consistency and comparability across jurisdictions and reporting periods. Each incident is reviewed and analysed using a methodology developed by SEESAC. 1 This publication, produced by UNDP with the European Union, is consistent with the United Nations rules, practices and procedures. References to Kosovo in this document shall be understood to be in the context of Security Council resolution 1244 (1999). * For the European Union, this designation used is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UN Security Council Resolution 1244/99 and the International Court of Justice Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence. 2 Data was retrieved on 29 April 2025. Given that news articles may be published after the incidents occurred or that recorded incidents can be updated with new pieces of information, the given statistics may slightly differ in the future. QUARTERLY SNAPSHOTS 932 524 143 Firearm incidents cases of weapon Reported cases in the were reported, a seizures were criminal context, a marginal increase reported, accounting 25% rise from the from the previous for 56% of all firearm previous quarter. quarter. incidents - the highest number recorded in a single quarter to date. 36 124 53 People were killed in People were Cases involved firearm incidents, 13 threatened with a automatic/military- of whom in a mass firearm, nearly 40% grade weapons, a shooting. more than in the 60% rise, reversing previous quarter. the downward trend of 2024. NUMBER OF INCIDENTS In the first quarter of 2025, 932 firearm incidents were reported, nearly matching the 923 incidents documented in the previous quarter. This quarter represented a 9% increase compared to the first quarter in 2024, which had 857 incidents. The highest number of incidents was reported in January, totalling 350 cases, marking a 12% rise compared to the same month in 2024. 331 332 300 Number of recorded incidents 200 174 142 138 115 117 102 100 90 92 81 75 32 34 0 Serbia Moldova Montenegro Kosovo Bosnia and North Macedonia Albania Herzegovina October-December 2024 January-March 2025 Kosovo (332) maintained the highest and stable number of incidents, reporting a nearly identical number of incidents in both quarters. Montenegro had the second-highest number of incidents and the largest increase, with incidents nearly doubling from 75 to 142. Albania recorded a 27% rise - from 92 to 117 cases. Serbia also experienced a moderate increase of around 10% (from 81 to 90). North Macedonia saw the sharpest decline of 41%, with incidents dropping from 174 to 102. Bosnia and Herzegovina also saw a decrease of 17%, from 138 to 115 incidents. Moldova had the lowest number of incidents, despite documenting a slight rise. TYPES OF INCIDENTS The monthly distribution of firearm incidents in the first quarter of 2025 reveals fluctuations across different types of incidents: 185 168 171 150 Number of recorded incidents 100 55 47 50 50 41 41 31 27 23 26 18 11 11 9 3 5 5 5 0 0 January 2025 February 2025 March 2025 Accidental, Hunting, Celebratory shooting Criminal context Dispute with police Domestic violence Public dispute Weapon seizures Other/Unknown Weapon seizures remained the most reported incident type across all three months, consistently accounting for the highest number of cases, peaking in January (185). Incidents in the criminal context were the second most commonly reported type of incidents, peaking in February (55). Public disputes fluctuated moderately, with the highest number reported in January (31). Domestic violence incidents remained relatively stable, with 11 cases in both January and February and a slight decrease in March. Accidental, hunting, and celebratory shootings were mainly concentrated in January (23), likely linked to celebratory shooting in the holiday season, before sharply dropping in both February and March. Disputes with police were sporadic, with 3 cases in January, 5 in February, and no incidents reported in March. Incidents falling under the Other/unknown category decreased from 50 cases in January to 27 in February, then slightly rose to 41 in March. MOST REPORTED INCIDENTS Weapon seizures Weapon seizures stayed the predominant type of incident in this quarter, with 524 reported cases, representing 56% of all incidents and showing a marginal increase over the prior quarter's total of 521 cases. This also marks the largest recorded number of weapon seizures in a single quarter under the AVMP. 198 195 200 Number of recorded weapon seizures 150 119 112 100 68 56 57 51 50 37 42 41 26 24 19 0 Serbia Moldova Montenegro Kosovo Bosnia and North Macedonia Albania Herzegovina October-December 2024 January-March 2025 Kosovo, with 195 cases, maintained the highest number of seizures, representing over one-third of seizures in the region. In Montenegro, the reported weapon seizures more than doubled (from 51 to 112) due to a strong law enforcement response following a mass shooting in January. A 39% rise was seen in Albania (24), followed by Moldova (24) where a 26% increase was reported. In contrast, North Macedonia experienced a significant decline of 43%. Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia also recorded decreases of 25% and 30%, respectively. 73 75 Number of incidents in which these types of firearms were 50 41 seized 25 14 15 12 11 10 10 11 11 6 6 8 6 3 4 5 4 4 0 1 0 Serbia Moldova Montenegro Kosovo Bosnia and North Albania Herzegovina Macedonia Handguns Explosive devices Rifles/Shotguns Three most seized types of weapons in January-March 2025 Handguns remained the most frequently seized type of weapon in both quarters, with a 24% increase from the previous quarter. Significant rises were recorded in Albania, Montenegro, and North Macedonia, while Kosovo continued to report the highest number of seizures overall. In contrast, Serbia saw a slight decline in handgun seizures. The seizures of rifles/shotguns remained stable at 80 cases in both quarters. While Kosovo reported a decrease, increases were observed in Albania, Montenegro, and North Macedonia. Seizures of explosive devices dropped by 40%, from 114 in the previous quarter to 68 in this quarter. This decrease was largely driven by a sharp reduction in North Macedonia, mainly due to a drop in seizures of pyrotechnic devices. Criminal context During the first quarter of 2025, a total of 143 firearm incidents were recorded in the criminal context, reflecting a 25% increase compared to the previous quarter. This rise was primarily driven by an increase in armed robberies, firearm thefts, and incidents linked to organized crime. In the reporting quarter, Bosnia and Herzegovina continued to record the highest number of firearm incidents in the criminal context (37), marking a slight increase from the previous quarter. Kosovo (31) and Serbia (29) also saw rises, continuing the upward trend from the last quarter of 2024. Montenegro doubled its numbers from 8 to 16 incidents, while Moldova recorded a modest increase (from 6 to 7). In contrast, Albania (14) and North Macedonia (9) experienced slight declines compared to the previous quarter. 37 Number of recorded incidents in 31 32 30 the criminal context 21 22 20 20 16 15 14 11 8 9 10 7 6 0 Serbia Moldova Montenegro Kosovo Bosnia and North Albania Herzegovina Macedonia October-December 2024 January-March 2025 A total of 51 armed robberies were reported in this quarter, marking a 38% increase from the previous quarter. Serbia reported the highest number of armed robberies (23), more than double that of the last quarter. Bosnia and Herzegovina followed with 15 cases, a 67% rise. Slight increases were seen in Albania, Kosovo, and Montenegro. North Macedonia, on the other hand, saw a decline, from 11 to 4 cases, while Moldova again had no reported cases. Firearm incidents linked to organized crime totalled 46 cases in the first quarter of 2025, a 7% increase from the previous quarter, with 43 cases. Bosnia and Herzegovina maintained the highest number, with 15 cases in both quarters. Montenegro saw a rise, from 4 to 13 incidents. Moldova and Kosovo also recorded a modest increase. Albania and Serbia experienced declines of 50% and 63%, respectively, while North Macedonia had no reported cases in either quarter. A total of 27 firearm thefts were documented in the region this quarter, a 23% rise from 22 cases in the previous quarter. Most firearm thefts were reported in Kosovo (19). 23 organized crime, and firearm thefts r obberies, incidents linked to 19 Number of recorded armed 20 15 15 13 10 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 Serbia Moldova Montenegro Kosovo Bosnia and North Albania Herzegovina Macedonia Armed robberies Organized crime Firearm thefts Undetermined shootings A total of 77 undetermined shootings 3 were reported in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a 30% decrease compared to 110 cases in the previous quarter, thus continuing a downward trend observed in the last quarter of 2024. The holiday season likely contributed to the peak in undetermined shootings in January when 40% of these incidents were documented. Kosovo continued to report the highest number of such incidents (51), despite a 14% decline from the previous quarter. Bosnia and Herzegovina saw a sharp drop from 12 to 5 cases, while North Macedonia also halved its numbers from 16 to 7. Montenegro reported a significant decrease, falling from 8 to 2 cases. Albania (6) and Serbia (6) remained relatively stable, with Serbia recording a slight increase. Moldova reported no undetermined shootings in this quarter. 59 60 Number of recorded undetermined 51 40 shootings 20 16 12 8 9 6 7 6 5 5 1 2 0 0 Serbia Moldova Montenegro Kosovo Bosnia and North Albania Herzegovina Macedonia October-December 2024 January-March 2025 Public disputes A total of 75 incidents related to public disputes were recorded in the first quarter of 2025, marking a 36% increase from the 55 incidents reported in the last quarter of 2024. The sharpest rises were observed in Kosovo, where cases increased from 13 to 21, and in Albania, which saw an increase from 12 to 20. Serbia also doubled its reported cases, rising from 5 to 10. While Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, and Montenegro recorded minor increases, Moldova reported no such incidents in this quarter. 21 20 Number of recorded public disputes 20 involving firearms 13 12 12 11 10 10 10 8 5 5 2 1 0 0 Serbia Moldova Montenegro Kosovo Bosnia and North Albania Herzegovina Macedonia October-December 2024 January-March 2025 3 Undetermined shooting refers to any firearm discharge under unknown circumstances and motives, regardless of whether or not such incident caused a fatality, injury, or damage. Domestic violence A total of 31 firearm-related domestic violence incidents were reported in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a slight increase from 26 cases in the previous quarter. The rises were seen in Albania, which more than doubled its cases from 5 to 11, and in Kosovo, where incidents rose from 8 to 12. Montenegro also saw an increase, from 1 to 4 cases. A modest increase was also seen in Serbia, rising from 2 to 3 cases. In contrast, Bosnia and Herzegovina reported no incidents in the first quarter of 2025, after recording 7 in the previous quarter. North Macedonia recorded a slight decrease, while Moldova reported no cases in either quarter. Of the 31 firearm-related domestic violence incidents reported in this quarter, 18 were cases of intimate partner violence, slightly down from 19 in the previous quarter. In contrast, violence by other family members increased, from 7 cases in the fourth quarter of 2024 to 13 in the first quarter of 2025. 12 11 violence cases involving firearms Number of recorded domestic 10 8 7 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 Serbia Moldova Montenegro Kosovo Bosnia and North Albania Herzegovina Macedonia October-December 2024 January-March 2025 Accidental/Celebratory shootings/ Hunting A total of 33 incidents were recorded under the category of Accidental, Celebratory Shootings, Hunting, marking a slight increase from 29 cases in the previous quarter. Of these, 18 incidents were linked to celebratory shootings, while 15 involved accidental discharges, including two during hunting activities. The majority of these incidents were reported in Kosovo (14), followed by North Macedonia and Serbia, with 6 such cases each. 15 Number of recorded incidents linked 15 14 to accidental/celebratory shootings/hunting 10 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 Serbia Moldova Montenegro Kosovo Bosnia and North Albania Herzegovina Macedonia October-December 2024 January-March 2025 PERPETRATORS A total of 1,159 perpetrators 4 were recorded in firearm incidents during the reporting period. The majority were men (916), while 15 were women, and sex was not indicated for 228 individuals. In cases when the sex was known, men accounted for 98% and women for 2% of perpetrators. 98% 2% Men were identified as perpetrators, mostly in incidents related to weapon seizures (55%), criminal context (18%), public disputes (10%) and undetermined shootings (6%). Women were identified as perpetrators, mainly in incidents related to weapon seizures (47%). The most common age group among perpetrators was 36–60 years (250), followed by 19–35 years (211) and 0–18 years (56). There were also 47 perpetrators aged 61 and over. However, for 595 perpetrators, the age remained unknown, while for 170 neither age nor sex was reported. 420 400 Number of perpetrators by sex and age 300 210 191 200 170 100 54 41 32 8 18 0 2 0 5 2 6 0 Men Women N/A 0-18 19-35 36-60 61-100 Unknown 4 Perpetrator refers to any individual who has used a firearm/ammunition/explosive to commit any of the types of incidents covered by the AVMP. VICTIMS A total of 333 victims 5 were recorded in firearm-related incidents. This marks an 11% increase compared to 298 in the previous quarter. Men accounted for the majority of victims (240 men), while 63 were women, and for 30 individuals, the information on sex was not reported. In cases when the sex was known, men accounted for 79% and women for 21% of victims. 79% 21% Men were identified as victims, mostly in incidents related to public disputes (34%), criminal context (23%), public disputes (10%) and undetermined shootings (17%). Women were identified as victims, mainly in incidents related to the criminal context (44%), specifically in armed robberies, and domestic violence (34%). When the age was known, the 36–60 age group was the most affected among victims, with 61 victims, followed by 19–35-year-olds (33 victims) and those aged 0–18 (23 victims). There were 16 victims aged 61 and over, while the age remained unknown in 200 victims. 125 125 Number of perpetrators by sex and age 100 75 51 47 50 32 28 25 19 13 10 2 1 3 2 0 0 0 0 Men Women N/A 0-18 19-35 36-60 61-100 Unknown 5 Victim refers to any individual who has been threatened, injured or died as a result of the use of a firearm/ ammunition/explosives. Victims also include those who were present when a firearm was discharged but did not sustain a gunshot injury and those who were present during an incident in which a firearm was present but was not used. Outcomes for victims The outcomes of firearm incidents in the first quarter of 2025 reflect different levels of impact of armed violence. 71 Number of victims by outcome and 59 52 50 46 sex 32 25 18 10 8 8 4 3 2 0 1 0 0 Death Suicide Threat Injury No injury Men Women N/A Most reported outcomes of firearm incidents by type from January to March 2025 Compared to the previous quarter, the number of firearm-related deaths increased slightly from 34 to 36, with men accounting for the majority in both quarters. Deaths among women decreased from 7 to 4. The highest number of deaths was reported in Montenegro (14), primarily due to a mass shooting, followed by Albania (7). The number of reported firearm-related suicides remained relatively stable, with a minor rise from 10 to 11 cases, most of which involved men as victims. A total of 4 suicides were reported in Serbia, while other jurisdictions reported 2 or fewer cases. The number of injured victims saw a slight decline, from 89 to 82. However, injuries among men increased from 61 to 71, while those among women decreased from 13 to 8. Kosovo (20), Serbia (17), and Albania (15) reported the highest number of injured victims. Threats with firearms were the most reported outcome, with 124 threatened victims, affecting 59 men and 50 women. The number of threatened victims rose by 32%. Threatened victims were mainly reported in Kosovo (29), Serbia (27), and Bosnia and Herzegovina (23). In cases where a firearm was discharged, 62 victims were unharmed, and reported no-injury outcomes. The number of these victims increased from 56 to 62. Most victims were reported in Kosovo (32) and Albania (15). 32 30 29 27 Number of recorded victims 23 20 20 17 16 16 14 15 15 13 13 11 10 7 7 6 4 5 4 4 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 Death Injury Threat No injury Suicide Serbia Moldova Montenegro Kosovo Bosnia and Herzegovina North Macedonia Albania Most reported outcomes of firearm incidents by jurisdiction from January to March 2025 Outcomes for victims and context The below overview offers an insight into the outcomes for victims resulting from the use of firearms in different contexts covered by the AVMP. 57 Number of recorded victims 40 36 30 26 23 19 19 20 15 13 9 8 7 4 5 3 3 3 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 Accidental/ Criminal context Domestic violence Public dispute Undetermined Mass shooting elebratory C shootings shootings/ Hunting Death Injury Threat No injury Most reported outcomes of firearm incidents by type from January to March 2025 Firearm-related deaths The highest number of firearm-related deaths occurred in the context of mass shootings, with 13 victims, including 10 men and 3 women. Public disputes involving firearms were the second most fatal context, resulting in 8 victims, of whom 7 were men and 1 was a woman. Fatalities linked to undetermined shootings and domestic violence followed, with 7 and 3 deaths, respectively, all men. The AVMP data collected since 2018 indicates that this is the first quarter in which no women were reported killed in domestic violence incidents. Incidents in the criminal context resulted in 3 fatalities, involving only men. Firearm-related injuries The highest number of injured victims occurred during public disputes (30), followed by accidental/celebratory shootings/hunting (19) and undetermined shootings (15). Almost half of the injuries were caused by the celebratory use of pyrotechnic devices, mainly affecting minor victims. The use of firearms in domestic violence led to 2 men and 2 women being injured, while 3 men were injured in the criminal context. One man and 2 women were injured in the mass shooting. Firearm-related threats Threats with firearms were most frequently reported in incidents in the criminal context, accounting for 57 threatened victims, followed by public disputes (36) and domestic violence (27). Women were particularly affected in the criminal context with 26 women threatened (mainly in armed robberies) and in domestic violence, with 18 victims. Undetermined shootings accounted for the highest number of no-injury outcomes, with 23 victims, followed by public disputes (19) and criminal context incidents (9). Majority of these victims were men. TYPES OF WEAPONS In 693 (74%) incidents, the firearms used were in illegal possession, while in 47 (5%) cases, they were in legal possession. In 192 (21%) incidents, the status of possession was not reported. During this quarter, in 14% of all reported cases, the type of firearm was either unknown or not reported. Handguns remained the most frequently reported weapon type in both quarters, with a 22% increase in usage observed in the first quarter of 2025. During this period, handguns were seized in 155 cases. They were also linked to various contexts, including criminal context (55 cases), 33 public disputes, and 17 undetermined shootings, among others. The use of rifles/ shotguns remained consistent across both quarters, with 109 cases reported in each. In 73% of these cases, the weapon type was seized. 300 291 Number of recorded incidents 238 200 150 135 109 102 105 109 100 53 41 42 33 0 October-December 2024 January-March 2025 Handguns Explosive devices Rifles/Shotguns Gas pistols Automatic/Military-grade weapons Multiple types of SALW Most reported types of weapons from January to March 2025 Explosive devices were the third most reported type of weapon, with 105 cases recorded, a 30% drop compared to the previous quarter. The decline was mostly caused by a decrease in the seizures of pyrotechnic devices. Additionally, civilians reported 42 cases of accidental discoveries of explosive devices, while 13 cases involved their use in undetermined explosions. The number of cases involving automatic and military-grade weapons rose sharply by 60%, increasing from 33 cases in the previous quarter to 53 in the first quarter of 2025. This shift marks a reversal of the downward trend observed throughout 2024. In the majority of cases (58%), these weapons were reported as seized. The number of incidents involving gas pistols remained stable, with 42 cases reported in the first quarter of 2025, nearly identical to the 41 cases recorded in the previous quarter. In 60% of these incidents, gas pistols were reported as seized. Incidents involving multiple types of SALW increased by 32%, rising from 102 to 135 cases between the two quarters. These cases were predominantly linked to weapon seizures. MACRO AND MICROLOCATION From January to March 2025 704 (76%) incidents 228 (24%) incidents occured in urban areas. occured in rural areas. Microlocation 125 125 121 117 100 Number of reported incidents 100 Home, apartment, yard 83 78 74 Street, sidewalk, parking lot 75 Public, office, retail establishment 51 Forest, field, uninhabited area 50 45 Cafe, restaurant, club, hotel 31 30 20 Not reported 25 11 13 12 7 6 8 0 January 2025 February 2025 March 2025 When reported, the majority of incidents occurred at homes / yards in streets in public buildings 363 incidents 170 incidents 81 incidents South Eastern and Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SEESAC) Bulevar Zorana Đinđića 64 11000 Belgrade, Serbia Tel: +381 11 4155300 Fax: +381 11 4155499 e-mail: seesac@undp.org www.seesac.org The Armed Violence Monitor was prepared by Violeta Gaši, SEESAC Programme Associate, and edited by Juliana Buzi, SEESAC Regional Cooperation Specialist. This Armed Violence Monitor was produced with the financial assistance of the European Union. The views expressed herein can in no way be taken to reflect the official opinion of the European Union.
South East Europe ARMED VIOLENCE MONITOR Quarterly Regional Report January - March 2025 Background The spread and misuse of firearms remain a persistent threat to public safety, human rights, and sustainable development worldwide. Recognizing this challenge, UNDP SEESAC established the Armed Violence Monitoring Platform (AVMP) to systematically collect and analyse data on firearm-related incidents across South East Europe (SEE). Monitoring and analysing firearm-related incidents are therefore essential to understanding the scale, scope, and dynamics of armed violence. Comprehensive and timely data is crucial to inform evidence-based policymaking, strengthen prevention and response strategies, and support efforts to reduce the illicit possession and misuse of small arms and light weapons (SALW). To support these goals, this Quarterly Regional Report 1 presents key trends, incident patterns, and emerging threats observed between January and March 2025. Building on monthly reports, it aims to enhance understanding of firearm- related violence in SEE. The AVMP provides real-time insight into the scope and impact of firearm use, covering Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, the Republic of Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Kosovo.* Methodology The AVMP provides real-time insight2 into the scope and impact of firearm incidents, covering Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, the Republic of Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Kosovo. The AVMP data is collected daily from a combination of official sources, including websites of law enforcement institutions and ministries of interior, online and print media, with Kosovo’s data primarily sourced from daily police reports. Data on firearm incidents is categorised according to standardised definitions to ensure consistency and comparability across jurisdictions and reporting periods. Each incident is reviewed and analysed using a methodology developed by SEESAC. 1 This publication, produced by UNDP with the European Union, is consistent with the United Nations rules, practices and procedures. References to Kosovo in this document shall be understood to be in the context of Security Council resolution 1244 (1999). * For the European Union, this designation used is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UN Security Council Resolution 1244/99 and the International Court of Justice Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence. 2 Data was retrieved on 29 April 2025. Given that news articles may be published after the incidents occurred or that recorded incidents can be updated with new pieces of information, the given statistics may slightly differ in the future. QUARTERLY SNAPSHOTS 932 524 143 Firearm incidents cases of weapon Reported cases in the were reported, a seizures were criminal context, a marginal increase reported, accounting 25% rise from the from the previous for 56% of all firearm previous quarter. quarter. incidents - the highest number recorded in a single quarter to date. 36 124 53 People were killed in People were Cases involved firearm incidents, 13 threatened with a automatic/military- of whom in a mass firearm, nearly 40% grade weapons, a shooting. more than in the 60% rise, reversing previous quarter. the downward trend of 2024. NUMBER OF INCIDENTS In the first quarter of 2025, 932 firearm incidents were reported, nearly matching the 923 incidents documented in the previous quarter. This quarter represented a 9% increase compared to the first quarter in 2024, which had 857 incidents. The highest number of incidents was reported in January, totalling 350 cases, marking a 12% rise compared to the same month in 2024. 331 332 300 Number of recorded incidents 200 174 142 138 115 117 102 100 90 92 81 75 32 34 0 Serbia Moldova Montenegro Kosovo Bosnia and North Macedonia Albania Herzegovina October-December 2024 January-March 2025 Kosovo (332) maintained the highest and stable number of incidents, reporting a nearly identical number of incidents in both quarters. Montenegro had the second-highest number of incidents and the largest increase, with incidents nearly doubling from 75 to 142. Albania recorded a 27% rise - from 92 to 117 cases. Serbia also experienced a moderate increase of around 10% (from 81 to 90). North Macedonia saw the sharpest decline of 41%, with incidents dropping from 174 to 102. Bosnia and Herzegovina also saw a decrease of 17%, from 138 to 115 incidents. Moldova had the lowest number of incidents, despite documenting a slight rise. TYPES OF INCIDENTS The monthly distribution of firearm incidents in the first quarter of 2025 reveals fluctuations across different types of incidents: 185 168 171 150 Number of recorded incidents 100 55 47 50 50 41 41 31 27 23 26 18 11 11 9 3 5 5 5 0 0 January 2025 February 2025 March 2025 Accidental, Hunting, Celebratory shooting Criminal context Dispute with police Domestic violence Public dispute Weapon seizures Other/Unknown Weapon seizures remained the most reported incident type across all three months, consistently accounting for the highest number of cases, peaking in January (185). Incidents in the criminal context were the second most commonly reported type of incidents, peaking in February (55). Public disputes fluctuated moderately, with the highest number reported in January (31). Domestic violence incidents remained relatively stable, with 11 cases in both January and February and a slight decrease in March. Accidental, hunting, and celebratory shootings were mainly concentrated in January (23), likely linked to celebratory shooting in the holiday season, before sharply dropping in both February and March. Disputes with police were sporadic, with 3 cases in January, 5 in February, and no incidents reported in March. Incidents falling under the Other/unknown category decreased from 50 cases in January to 27 in February, then slightly rose to 41 in March. MOST REPORTED INCIDENTS Weapon seizures Weapon seizures stayed the predominant type of incident in this quarter, with 524 reported cases, representing 56% of all incidents and showing a marginal increase over the prior quarter's total of 521 cases. This also marks the largest recorded number of weapon seizures in a single quarter under the AVMP. 198 195 200 Number of recorded weapon seizures 150 119 112 100 68 56 57 51 50 37 42 41 26 24 19 0 Serbia Moldova Montenegro Kosovo Bosnia and North Macedonia Albania Herzegovina October-December 2024 January-March 2025 Kosovo, with 195 cases, maintained the highest number of seizures, representing over one-third of seizures in the region. In Montenegro, the reported weapon seizures more than doubled (from 51 to 112) due to a strong law enforcement response following a mass shooting in January. A 39% rise was seen in Albania (24), followed by Moldova (24) where a 26% increase was reported. In contrast, North Macedonia experienced a significant decline of 43%. Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia also recorded decreases of 25% and 30%, respectively. 73 75 Number of incidents in which these types of firearms were 50 41 seized 25 14 15 12 11 10 10 11 11 6 6 8 6 3 4 5 4 4 0 1 0 Serbia Moldova Montenegro Kosovo Bosnia and North Albania Herzegovina Macedonia Handguns Explosive devices Rifles/Shotguns Three most seized types of weapons in January-March 2025 Handguns remained the most frequently seized type of weapon in both quarters, with a 24% increase from the previous quarter. Significant rises were recorded in Albania, Montenegro, and North Macedonia, while Kosovo continued to report the highest number of seizures overall. In contrast, Serbia saw a slight decline in handgun seizures. The seizures of rifles/shotguns remained stable at 80 cases in both quarters. While Kosovo reported a decrease, increases were observed in Albania, Montenegro, and North Macedonia. Seizures of explosive devices dropped by 40%, from 114 in the previous quarter to 68 in this quarter. This decrease was largely driven by a sharp reduction in North Macedonia, mainly due to a drop in seizures of pyrotechnic devices. Criminal context During the first quarter of 2025, a total of 143 firearm incidents were recorded in the criminal context, reflecting a 25% increase compared to the previous quarter. This rise was primarily driven by an increase in armed robberies, firearm thefts, and incidents linked to organized crime. In the reporting quarter, Bosnia and Herzegovina continued to record the highest number of firearm incidents in the criminal context (37), marking a slight increase from the previous quarter. Kosovo (31) and Serbia (29) also saw rises, continuing the upward trend from the last quarter of 2024. Montenegro doubled its numbers from 8 to 16 incidents, while Moldova recorded a modest increase (from 6 to 7). In contrast, Albania (14) and North Macedonia (9) experienced slight declines compared to the previous quarter. 37 Number of recorded incidents in 31 32 30 the criminal context 21 22 20 20 16 15 14 11 8 9 10 7 6 0 Serbia Moldova Montenegro Kosovo Bosnia and North Albania Herzegovina Macedonia October-December 2024 January-March 2025 A total of 51 armed robberies were reported in this quarter, marking a 38% increase from the previous quarter. Serbia reported the highest number of armed robberies (23), more than double that of the last quarter. Bosnia and Herzegovina followed with 15 cases, a 67% rise. Slight increases were seen in Albania, Kosovo, and Montenegro. North Macedonia, on the other hand, saw a decline, from 11 to 4 cases, while Moldova again had no reported cases. Firearm incidents linked to organized crime totalled 46 cases in the first quarter of 2025, a 7% increase from the previous quarter, with 43 cases. Bosnia and Herzegovina maintained the highest number, with 15 cases in both quarters. Montenegro saw a rise, from 4 to 13 incidents. Moldova and Kosovo also recorded a modest increase. Albania and Serbia experienced declines of 50% and 63%, respectively, while North Macedonia had no reported cases in either quarter. A total of 27 firearm thefts were documented in the region this quarter, a 23% rise from 22 cases in the previous quarter. Most firearm thefts were reported in Kosovo (19). 23 organized crime, and firearm thefts r obberies, incidents linked to 19 Number of recorded armed 20 15 15 13 10 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 Serbia Moldova Montenegro Kosovo Bosnia and North Albania Herzegovina Macedonia Armed robberies Organized crime Firearm thefts Undetermined shootings A total of 77 undetermined shootings 3 were reported in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a 30% decrease compared to 110 cases in the previous quarter, thus continuing a downward trend observed in the last quarter of 2024. The holiday season likely contributed to the peak in undetermined shootings in January when 40% of these incidents were documented. Kosovo continued to report the highest number of such incidents (51), despite a 14% decline from the previous quarter. Bosnia and Herzegovina saw a sharp drop from 12 to 5 cases, while North Macedonia also halved its numbers from 16 to 7. Montenegro reported a significant decrease, falling from 8 to 2 cases. Albania (6) and Serbia (6) remained relatively stable, with Serbia recording a slight increase. Moldova reported no undetermined shootings in this quarter. 59 60 Number of recorded undetermined 51 40 shootings 20 16 12 8 9 6 7 6 5 5 1 2 0 0 Serbia Moldova Montenegro Kosovo Bosnia and North Albania Herzegovina Macedonia October-December 2024 January-March 2025 Public disputes A total of 75 incidents related to public disputes were recorded in the first quarter of 2025, marking a 36% increase from the 55 incidents reported in the last quarter of 2024. The sharpest rises were observed in Kosovo, where cases increased from 13 to 21, and in Albania, which saw an increase from 12 to 20. Serbia also doubled its reported cases, rising from 5 to 10. While Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, and Montenegro recorded minor increases, Moldova reported no such incidents in this quarter. 21 20 Number of recorded public disputes 20 involving firearms 13 12 12 11 10 10 10 8 5 5 2 1 0 0 Serbia Moldova Montenegro Kosovo Bosnia and North Albania Herzegovina Macedonia October-December 2024 January-March 2025 3 Undetermined shooting refers to any firearm discharge under unknown circumstances and motives, regardless of whether or not such incident caused a fatality, injury, or damage. Domestic violence A total of 31 firearm-related domestic violence incidents were reported in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a slight increase from 26 cases in the previous quarter. The rises were seen in Albania, which more than doubled its cases from 5 to 11, and in Kosovo, where incidents rose from 8 to 12. Montenegro also saw an increase, from 1 to 4 cases. A modest increase was also seen in Serbia, rising from 2 to 3 cases. In contrast, Bosnia and Herzegovina reported no incidents in the first quarter of 2025, after recording 7 in the previous quarter. North Macedonia recorded a slight decrease, while Moldova reported no cases in either quarter. Of the 31 firearm-related domestic violence incidents reported in this quarter, 18 were cases of intimate partner violence, slightly down from 19 in the previous quarter. In contrast, violence by other family members increased, from 7 cases in the fourth quarter of 2024 to 13 in the first quarter of 2025. 12 11 violence cases involving firearms Number of recorded domestic 10 8 7 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 Serbia Moldova Montenegro Kosovo Bosnia and North Albania Herzegovina Macedonia October-December 2024 January-March 2025 Accidental/Celebratory shootings/ Hunting A total of 33 incidents were recorded under the category of Accidental, Celebratory Shootings, Hunting, marking a slight increase from 29 cases in the previous quarter. Of these, 18 incidents were linked to celebratory shootings, while 15 involved accidental discharges, including two during hunting activities. The majority of these incidents were reported in Kosovo (14), followed by North Macedonia and Serbia, with 6 such cases each. 15 Number of recorded incidents linked 15 14 to accidental/celebratory shootings/hunting 10 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 Serbia Moldova Montenegro Kosovo Bosnia and North Albania Herzegovina Macedonia October-December 2024 January-March 2025 PERPETRATORS A total of 1,159 perpetrators 4 were recorded in firearm incidents during the reporting period. The majority were men (916), while 15 were women, and sex was not indicated for 228 individuals. In cases when the sex was known, men accounted for 98% and women for 2% of perpetrators. 98% 2% Men were identified as perpetrators, mostly in incidents related to weapon seizures (55%), criminal context (18%), public disputes (10%) and undetermined shootings (6%). Women were identified as perpetrators, mainly in incidents related to weapon seizures (47%). The most common age group among perpetrators was 36–60 years (250), followed by 19–35 years (211) and 0–18 years (56). There were also 47 perpetrators aged 61 and over. However, for 595 perpetrators, the age remained unknown, while for 170 neither age nor sex was reported. 420 400 Number of perpetrators by sex and age 300 210 191 200 170 100 54 41 32 8 18 0 2 0 5 2 6 0 Men Women N/A 0-18 19-35 36-60 61-100 Unknown 4 Perpetrator refers to any individual who has used a firearm/ammunition/explosive to commit any of the types of incidents covered by the AVMP. VICTIMS A total of 333 victims 5 were recorded in firearm-related incidents. This marks an 11% increase compared to 298 in the previous quarter. Men accounted for the majority of victims (240 men), while 63 were women, and for 30 individuals, the information on sex was not reported. In cases when the sex was known, men accounted for 79% and women for 21% of victims. 79% 21% Men were identified as victims, mostly in incidents related to public disputes (34%), criminal context (23%), public disputes (10%) and undetermined shootings (17%). Women were identified as victims, mainly in incidents related to the criminal context (44%), specifically in armed robberies, and domestic violence (34%). When the age was known, the 36–60 age group was the most affected among victims, with 61 victims, followed by 19–35-year-olds (33 victims) and those aged 0–18 (23 victims). There were 16 victims aged 61 and over, while the age remained unknown in 200 victims. 125 125 Number of perpetrators by sex and age 100 75 51 47 50 32 28 25 19 13 10 2 1 3 2 0 0 0 0 Men Women N/A 0-18 19-35 36-60 61-100 Unknown 5 Victim refers to any individual who has been threatened, injured or died as a result of the use of a firearm/ ammunition/explosives. Victims also include those who were present when a firearm was discharged but did not sustain a gunshot injury and those who were present during an incident in which a firearm was present but was not used. Outcomes for victims The outcomes of firearm incidents in the first quarter of 2025 reflect different levels of impact of armed violence. 71 Number of victims by outcome and 59 52 50 46 sex 32 25 18 10 8 8 4 3 2 0 1 0 0 Death Suicide Threat Injury No injury Men Women N/A Most reported outcomes of firearm incidents by type from January to March 2025 Compared to the previous quarter, the number of firearm-related deaths increased slightly from 34 to 36, with men accounting for the majority in both quarters. Deaths among women decreased from 7 to 4. The highest number of deaths was reported in Montenegro (14), primarily due to a mass shooting, followed by Albania (7). The number of reported firearm-related suicides remained relatively stable, with a minor rise from 10 to 11 cases, most of which involved men as victims. A total of 4 suicides were reported in Serbia, while other jurisdictions reported 2 or fewer cases. The number of injured victims saw a slight decline, from 89 to 82. However, injuries among men increased from 61 to 71, while those among women decreased from 13 to 8. Kosovo (20), Serbia (17), and Albania (15) reported the highest number of injured victims. Threats with firearms were the most reported outcome, with 124 threatened victims, affecting 59 men and 50 women. The number of threatened victims rose by 32%. Threatened victims were mainly reported in Kosovo (29), Serbia (27), and Bosnia and Herzegovina (23). In cases where a firearm was discharged, 62 victims were unharmed, and reported no-injury outcomes. The number of these victims increased from 56 to 62. Most victims were reported in Kosovo (32) and Albania (15). 32 30 29 27 Number of recorded victims 23 20 20 17 16 16 14 15 15 13 13 11 10 7 7 6 4 5 4 4 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 Death Injury Threat No injury Suicide Serbia Moldova Montenegro Kosovo Bosnia and Herzegovina North Macedonia Albania Most reported outcomes of firearm incidents by jurisdiction from January to March 2025 Outcomes for victims and context The below overview offers an insight into the outcomes for victims resulting from the use of firearms in different contexts covered by the AVMP. 57 Number of recorded victims 40 36 30 26 23 19 19 20 15 13 9 8 7 4 5 3 3 3 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 Accidental/ Criminal context Domestic violence Public dispute Undetermined Mass shooting elebratory C shootings shootings/ Hunting Death Injury Threat No injury Most reported outcomes of firearm incidents by type from January to March 2025 Firearm-related deaths The highest number of firearm-related deaths occurred in the context of mass shootings, with 13 victims, including 10 men and 3 women. Public disputes involving firearms were the second most fatal context, resulting in 8 victims, of whom 7 were men and 1 was a woman. Fatalities linked to undetermined shootings and domestic violence followed, with 7 and 3 deaths, respectively, all men. The AVMP data collected since 2018 indicates that this is the first quarter in which no women were reported killed in domestic violence incidents. Incidents in the criminal context resulted in 3 fatalities, involving only men. Firearm-related injuries The highest number of injured victims occurred during public disputes (30), followed by accidental/celebratory shootings/hunting (19) and undetermined shootings (15). Almost half of the injuries were caused by the celebratory use of pyrotechnic devices, mainly affecting minor victims. The use of firearms in domestic violence led to 2 men and 2 women being injured, while 3 men were injured in the criminal context. One man and 2 women were injured in the mass shooting. Firearm-related threats Threats with firearms were most frequently reported in incidents in the criminal context, accounting for 57 threatened victims, followed by public disputes (36) and domestic violence (27). Women were particularly affected in the criminal context with 26 women threatened (mainly in armed robberies) and in domestic violence, with 18 victims. Undetermined shootings accounted for the highest number of no-injury outcomes, with 23 victims, followed by public disputes (19) and criminal context incidents (9). Majority of these victims were men. TYPES OF WEAPONS In 693 (74%) incidents, the firearms used were in illegal possession, while in 47 (5%) cases, they were in legal possession. In 192 (21%) incidents, the status of possession was not reported. During this quarter, in 14% of all reported cases, the type of firearm was either unknown or not reported. Handguns remained the most frequently reported weapon type in both quarters, with a 22% increase in usage observed in the first quarter of 2025. During this period, handguns were seized in 155 cases. They were also linked to various contexts, including criminal context (55 cases), 33 public disputes, and 17 undetermined shootings, among others. The use of rifles/ shotguns remained consistent across both quarters, with 109 cases reported in each. In 73% of these cases, the weapon type was seized. 300 291 Number of recorded incidents 238 200 150 135 109 102 105 109 100 53 41 42 33 0 October-December 2024 January-March 2025 Handguns Explosive devices Rifles/Shotguns Gas pistols Automatic/Military-grade weapons Multiple types of SALW Most reported types of weapons from January to March 2025 Explosive devices were the third most reported type of weapon, with 105 cases recorded, a 30% drop compared to the previous quarter. The decline was mostly caused by a decrease in the seizures of pyrotechnic devices. Additionally, civilians reported 42 cases of accidental discoveries of explosive devices, while 13 cases involved their use in undetermined explosions. The number of cases involving automatic and military-grade weapons rose sharply by 60%, increasing from 33 cases in the previous quarter to 53 in the first quarter of 2025. This shift marks a reversal of the downward trend observed throughout 2024. In the majority of cases (58%), these weapons were reported as seized. The number of incidents involving gas pistols remained stable, with 42 cases reported in the first quarter of 2025, nearly identical to the 41 cases recorded in the previous quarter. In 60% of these incidents, gas pistols were reported as seized. Incidents involving multiple types of SALW increased by 32%, rising from 102 to 135 cases between the two quarters. These cases were predominantly linked to weapon seizures. MACRO AND MICROLOCATION From January to March 2025 704 (76%) incidents 228 (24%) incidents occured in urban areas. occured in rural areas. Microlocation 125 125 121 117 100 Number of reported incidents 100 Home, apartment, yard 83 78 74 Street, sidewalk, parking lot 75 Public, office, retail establishment 51 Forest, field, uninhabited area 50 45 Cafe, restaurant, club, hotel 31 30 20 Not reported 25 11 13 12 7 6 8 0 January 2025 February 2025 March 2025 When reported, the majority of incidents occurred at homes / yards in streets in public buildings 363 incidents 170 incidents 81 incidents South Eastern and Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SEESAC) Bulevar Zorana Đinđića 64 11000 Belgrade, Serbia Tel: +381 11 4155300 Fax: +381 11 4155499 e-mail: seesac@undp.org www.seesac.org The Armed Violence Monitor was prepared by Violeta Gaši, SEESAC Programme Associate, and edited by Juliana Buzi, SEESAC Regional Cooperation Specialist. This Armed Violence Monitor was produced with the financial assistance of the European Union. The views expressed herein can in no way be taken to reflect the official opinion of the European Union.
