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Latest Monitor Highlights Seasonal Trends in Firearm Incidents in the Third Quarter of 2026

SEESAC has published its latest Quarterly Regional Armed Violence Monitor, presenting key trends and patterns of firearm incidents in South East Europe between July and September 2026.

According to data collected through SEESAC’s Armed Violence Monitoring Platform (AVMP), 1,142 firearm incidents were recorded during the reporting period, marking a 33% increase compared with the previous quarter and a 29% increase compared with the same period in 2025.

Key findings from the third quarter of 2026 include:

  • Weapon seizures remained the most frequently reported category, with 505 cases, accounting for 44% of all recorded incidents.
  • Celebratory shootings increased sharply, from 22 incidents in the previous quarter to 108, reflecting a recurring seasonal pattern, particularly during the summer months.
  • Incidents in the criminal context increased by 24%, reaching 183 cases, including 90 incidents linked to organised crime, up from 63 in the previous quarter.
  • Undetermined shootings rose by 56%, from 75 to 117 incidents, while public disputes involving firearms increased by 34%, reaching 117 cases.
  • Domestic violence incidents involving firearms increased by 39%, from 23 to 32 cases.
  • Gas pistols were reported in 140 incidents, more than double the previous quarter, with the increase largely driven by celebratory shootings.

The human impact of firearm incidents also increased during the reporting period. A total of 417 victims were recorded, representing a 30% increase compared with the previous quarter. Among them:

  • 35 people were killed, compared with 32 in the previous quarter.
  • 101 people were injured, a 15% increase.
  • 176 people were threatened with firearms, a rise from 97 in the previous quarter.

Public disputes involving firearms accounted for the highest number of injuries and threats, while domestic violence remained the leading context for firearm-related fatalities.

Through its regular monitoring and analysis, SEESAC continues to provide evidence to inform policymaking, strengthen prevention efforts and support measures aimed at reducing firearm-related violence in South East Europe.

The full Regional Quarterly Armed Violence Monitor is available here.

About the Armed Violence Monitoring Platform (AVMP)

The Armed Violence Monitoring Platform (AVMP) has been tracking firearm incidents in South East Europe since 2014. It collects detailed data from media and public institution reports covering the Western Balkans and Moldova.

The collected data encompasses the type of incident, firearms used, victim/perpetrator demographics, and the outcome of the incident, among others, providing essential insights for arms control efforts and policymaking. By making this data accessible, the platform supports targeted interventions to reduce the impact of armed violence on civilians.

The AVMP is currently supported by funding from the EU Council Decision (CFSP) 2024/3006 to support SEESAC disarmament and arms control activities in South Europe, thereby reducing the threat posed by illicit small arms, light weapons, and their ammunition.

 

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