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Firearm Incidents in South East Europe: Key Trends in July–September 2025

SEESAC’s latest Regional Armed Violence Monitor points to an interesting shift in the dynamics of firearm incidents in South East Europe during July-September 2025. Nearly half of all recorded firearm incidents this quarter involved weapon seizures, indicating continued action by authorities to remove weapons from circulation. At the same time, the number of firearm-related deaths increased compared to the previous quarter, showing that the impact of armed violence remains evident.

The data captured during the third quarter of 2025 through the Armed Violence Monitoring Platform (AVMP) shows that:

  • 804 firearm incidents were recorded, marking a slight decline from the previous reporting period (820 cases) and a 14% drop compared to the same quarter in 2024 (939 cases).
  • 47% of all incidents (375 cases) were weapon seizures, which, despite a decrease, remained the most commonly recorded type of incident.
  • Firearm-related fatalities rose from 17 to 38, more than double compared to the previous quarter, most often reported in cases of domestic violence (11 victims), undetermined shootings (11 victims), and the criminal context (7 victims).
  • The number of injured people decreased by one-third, falling from 97 to 66 victims, while the number of those suffering threats involving firearms increased from 91 to 99 victims.
  • Incidents in the criminal context increased, primarily driven by a rise in cases linked to organized crime (from 39 to 63 cases).
  • 54 celebratory shootings were recorded, significantly lower than in the same period in 2024 (99), but consistent with the recurring pattern of a seasonal peak in summer months.
  • In 72% of all incidents (580 cases), firearms were in illegal possession.

The Regional Quarterly Armed Violence Monitors provide evidence-based insight into the contexts and consequences of firearm use and support shaping policies aimed at reducing armed violence and strengthening public safety.

The full Regional Quarterly Armed Violence Monitor is available here.

 

About the Armed Violence Monitoring Platform (AVMP)

The Armed Violence Monitoring Platform (AVMP) has been tracking firearm-related incidents in South East Europe since 2014. It collects detailed data from media and public institution reports covering the Western Balkans and Moldova.

The collected data encompasses the type of incident, firearms used, victim/perpetrator demographics, and the outcome of the incident, among others, providing essential insights for arms control efforts and policymaking. By making this data accessible, the platform supports targeted interventions to reduce the impact of armed violence on civilians.

The AVMP is currently supported by funding from the EU Council Decision (CFSP) 2024/3006 to support SEESAC disarmament and arms control activities in South Europe, thereby reducing the threat posed by illicit small arms, light weapons, and their ammunition.
 

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